Presidential jawboning about oil prices has continued to grab headlines this week, with President Trump on Sunday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is manipulating the oil market and “better stop it.” The statement followed a previous tweet explicitly confirming a phone call with King Salman of Saudi Arabia regarding the kingdom’s agreement to put even more oil on markets than announced last week to counter turmoil inside Iran and Venezuela. President’s unconventional approach contributed to an crude Monday, as market psychology appeared to shift.

That will likely be viewed favorably from the White House. But the transactional discussion offered that oil producing allies should offer accommodative oil export policies because “we are protecting them” laid bare a quid pro quo that could be problematical down the road given recent escalation of regional proxy wars. The United States may be encouraged by but turmoil can be unpredictable, and U.S.

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National interests can vary in certain respects from those of its allies. Lends itself to sympathy for President Trump’s frustration. Given the circumstances of the financial turmoil and oil price collapse that followed the oil price spikes in 2008 and 2014, it should be pretty unnecessary to have to remind kings, presidents and emirs that an unstable oil market is bad for everyone, including their own people. For all the talk about resource wars,. That’s probably because for all of the handwringing about the oil “weapon,” commodity prices eventually correct themselves naturally like gravity, even in the face of politically inspired cutoffs. For OPEC, history seems not to be a teacher. Reassert themselves when oil prices go up.

That was certainly the explanation of the price collapse in 2014 to 2016. Moreover, in the future, countries like the United States and China are increasingly more likely to rather than go to battle over resources either diplomatically or literally, especially in today’s digital revolution, where the potential for success is so high. The fact that few countries are willing to spend a trade chit on Iranian oil is a sign that times have changed.

More on: Oil producing countries are under budgetary pressure but, at least in the case of the Gulf countries and Russia, not enough to reverse course on high military spending and foreign adventurism. Venezuela should be the poster child for what could go wrong when governments raid the coffers of their national oil companies. The sad truth is that such suffering doesn’t actually seem to lead to regime change, just more repression.

Neoconservatives don’t seem to be learning that lesson either. That said, I believe oil prices have entered a new phase where the traditional features like business cycles and geopolitics that normally dictate the ups and downs of oil prices are now intersecting more integrally with structural technological change.

Digital disruption could bring a long run downward trend in energy costs over the coming decades, but that doesn’t necessarily mean “lower for longer” oil prices will be true for any particular month or year. If anything, digital innovation could be making the swings of the oil boom and bust cycle worse by shortening the time scale between up and down oil price phases. Private oil companies can bring new oil fields online with a rapid pace. Demand saving technologies are also readily available. To the extent that digital innovation does both simultaneously and seals a negative fate for individual national oil companies that cannot compete effectively in this new global context, it could bring higher oil prices at sharp intervals as oil supplies get disrupted from places where new investment is lagging, like Angola and Venezuela. In recent years, many important (NOCs) have found themselves a victim of deteriorating budgets or violence—industries in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Venezuela have been decimated.

NOCs in Mexico, Brazil, and China have succumbed to localized corruption problems. The list is likely to expand over time. During periods when a major oil supplier goes down, OPEC (or some other group of oil exporters) are bound to find themselves with market power. That is why a for the time being, and the U.S. Administration is smart to think about how to handle manipulation. Volatility can still come from exporter consortium attempts to goose prices. It may just be lumpy as technology continually improves to make itself felt and more frequent as digitization of everything from oil well development to energy efficiency gains pace.

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